Will Gas Prices Go Down in September 2026? Latest U.S. Forecast

Short answer: not yet, and probably not soon. As of September 14, 2026, the U.S. national average for regular gasoline sits at $4.32 per gallon (AAA), and prediction markets currently see a high probability that the average will climb past $4.60 before the year is out. The forces pushing prices up — an active Middle East conflict, a multi-decade-low emergency oil reserve, and a tight diesel market — are still intensifying, not easing. Here's the full picture and what would actually need to happen for prices to fall.

Current Price Snapshot (Mid-September 2026)

MetricLatest figureNational average, regular gas$4.32/gallon (AAA, Sept 14, 2026)National average, one week earlier$4.15/gallon (Sept 8)National average, one year earlier~$3.19/gallonDiesel (all-time record)$5.85/gallon (Sept 4, 2026)WTI crude~$100/barrelBrent crude~$104–105/barrelStrategic Petroleum Reserve286.6 million barrels — lowest since 1982

Prices have risen for multiple consecutive weeks, and the pace has been accelerating rather than leveling off — the jump from $4.15 to $4.32 in a single week is faster than the climb seen earlier in the summer.

Why Prices Are Still Rising, Not Falling

1. The Middle East conflict keeps escalating

This is the dominant factor. Since early September, the situation has continued to worsen rather than stabilize:

• Iran has warned of counterstrikes if U.S. military pressure continues
• Iran-backed Houthi forces have reportedly advanced control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another critical oil-shipping chokepoint alongside the Strait of Hormuz
• Saudi Arabia closed its East-West oil pipeline — the very route that's normally used to bypass Hormuz when the strait itself is unsafe — compounding the supply squeeze
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its global oil demand outlook, citing reduced supply and higher refined product prices

Each of these narrows the paths oil has to reach global markets, and traders have priced that risk directly into the cost of crude.

2. Refining capacity is stretched thin

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure have reduced global refined-fuel output at the same time Middle East supply is constrained. U.S. refineries are running near full capacity, and EIA data shows gasoline inventories actually rose slightly in the most recent week — but fuel production still declined, meaning refiners are drawing down stock rather than fully replenishing it even while running hard.

3. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve can't fully cushion this

Historically, the SPR gives the U.S. room to release oil and calm prices during a shock. At 286.6 million barrels, it's now at its lowest level since 1982, leaving the government far less room to intervene than during past crises like 2022.

4. Diesel's separate supply crunch is adding pressure

Diesel hit its all-time high of $5.85/gallon on September 4 because refiners had shifted output toward jet fuel earlier in the year, leaving distillate (diesel/heating oil) supplies about 13% below their five-year average — right as fall harvest and the run-up to heating season increase demand. This doesn't directly set gasoline prices, but it reflects how strained the overall fuel-refining system is right now.

What the Older Forecasts Got Wrong

It's worth flagging: as recently as earlier this year, the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook was projecting regular gasoline averaging around $2.90/gallon for 2026, based on an assumption of Brent crude settling near $50–51/barrel. That forecast assumed no major supply disruption. The events of the past several months — and especially the escalation since late August — have made that baseline obsolete. Expect the EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook (due October 6, 2026) to reflect a meaningfully higher price path than earlier editions.

Three Scenarios for the Rest of 2026

Energy analysts tracking the situation broadly frame the outlook in three paths:

1. De-escalation — A resolution or ceasefire reopens shipping through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, crude prices retreat, and pump prices gradually ease back — though likely not all the way back to pre-2026 levels given how depleted the SPR is.
2. Sustained high tension (current trajectory) — The standoff continues without further major escalation. Prices stay elevated and volatile but don't necessarily set new records every week.
3. Further escalation — Additional strikes, an actual closure (not just disruption) of a major strait, or a wider regional conflict. This would very plausibly push the national average toward or past $4.60–5.00, the level prediction markets are already pricing as increasingly likely.

As of mid-September 2026, the trend of the last two weeks — pipeline closures, strait disputes, and counterstrike warnings — points toward scenario two or three rather than one.

Bottom Line for Drivers

• Don't expect relief in September. If anything, current momentum points toward prices climbing further before they stabilize.
• Diesel-dependent budgets (trucking, farming, heating oil customers) should plan for continued strain into the fall and winter.
• Any actual de-escalation news out of the Middle East is the single biggest thing that could turn this around quickly — oil markets tend to react to headlines in hours, not weeks.
• Keep an eye on the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, released monthly, for the most current official forecast rather than relying on a forecast from earlier in the year.

Where to Track Real-Time Data

• AAA Gas Prices (daily national/state averages): gasprices.aaa.com
• EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly, next release Sept 22, 2026): eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (monthly forecast, next release Oct 6, 2026): eia.gov/outlooks/steo
• EIA crude oil spot prices: eia.gov/dnav/pet
• EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels: eia.gov/petroleum/reserves